Cincinnati vs USF Preview

Tomorrow afternoon at 4 pm, the Cincinnati Bearcats host their regular season finale against the South Florida Bulls. The game is on the Big East Network and I believe FSN Ohio. It's probably on WatchESPN as well. This game is important for a lot of reasons. First of all, it's senior day. The (hopeful) final home game for Cashmere Wright, JaQuon Parker, Cheikh Mbodj and Alex Eppensteiner. If you click on the names, you can read about the journey for each of the 4 seniors. They've taken different roads to get to this moment, but they all have ended up at the same spot. Basketball brings people together. 

Along with the sentimental, this is a game Cincinnati absolutely can not afford to lose. One has to assume St John's will lose to Marquette and finish the season with 10 Big East losses. Since UC lost to the Red Storm, a loss would leave UC with the 10 seed in the Big East tournament. The difference between playing Georgetown and Louisville in the second round is dramatic. Cincinnati played with one and was dominated by the other. That goes double for the first round. Cincinnati will play Providence or Villanova depending on where things fall. If PC wins, they are the 7 seed. If they lose, Nova is the 7 seed. I think UC matches up better with Villanova. Not just because UC beat them, but because Providence is a hungry team playing very well right now. They could end the regular season with 18 wins. Providence!

This game is also crucial for the NCAA tournament chances. Cincinnati has a very solid chance of making the field. A win puts them at a 21-10 and .500 in the league. That's good enough to go in this year. A loss and you are a looking at a 20 win team with a losing record in conference and an RPI in the 60s. UC's RPI will drop just by playing USF at home. A loss would kill it. South Florida is playing their best ball of the season right now. They have 3 wins in 2013 and two of them are the last 2 games. They are playing for pride. Just because the record is poor does not mean the effort will be. Gotta execute and win this game. 

Record: 20-10, 8-9 

Home: 12-5

RPI (from Real Time RPI)49

Vs South Florida: 23-8

In Cincinnati: 14-1

Last Meeting: 45-46, February 25, 2012

Minutes

  • Sean Kilpatrick 35.9
  • JaQuon Parker 32
  • Cashmere Wright 30.9
  • Titus Rubles 22.6
  • Cheikh Mbodj 22

Scoring

  • Sean Kilpatrick 16.4
  • Cashmere Wright 11.6
  • JaQuon Parker 10.5
  • Titus Rubles 5.3
  • Cheikh Mbodj 4.9

Field Goal % (Min 15 attempts)

  • David Nyarsuk 56.5
  • Cheikh Mbodj 43.1
  • Justin Jackson 42.5
  • JaQuon Parker 41.1
  • Jermaine Sanders 37.3

Free Throw % (Minimum 15 attempts)

  • Cashmere Wright 86.4
  • Sean Kilpatrick 77.5
  • Cheikh Mbodj 69.2
  • Titus Rubles 66.7
  • Justin Jackson 55.6

3 Pointers Made (3 point %)

  • Sean Kilpatrick 43 (29.5%)
  • Cashmere Wright 28 (26.4%)
  • JaQuon Parker 17 (35.4%)
  • Jermaine Sanders 9 (28%)
  • Ge'Lawn Guyn 6 (28.6%)

Rebounding

  • Titus Rubles 5.9
  • JaQuon Parker 4.8
  • Sean Kilpatrick 4.7
  • Justin Jackson 4.4
  • Cheikh Mbodj 4

Assists

  • Cashmere Wright 46
  • Titus Rubles 34
  • Sean Kilpatrick 27
  • JaQuon Parker 23
  • Justin Jackson 19

Turnovers

  • JaQuon Parker 37
  • Sean Kilpatrick 30
  • Titus Rubles 30
  • Cashmere Wright 28
  • Justin Jackson 25

Steals

  • Cashmere Wright 19
  • Sean Kilpatrick 15
  • Titus Rubles 14
  • JaQuon Parker 8
  • Shaq Thomas 8

Blocks

  • Cheikh Mbodj 44
  • Justin Jackson 19
  • David Nyarsuk 11
  • Sean Kilpatrick 5
  • Kelvin Gaines / Titus Rubles 4

Record: 12-17, 3-14

Road/Neutral: 2-9

RPI: 133

Winning Streak: 2

Minutes

  • Anthony Collins 36.6
  • Victor Rudd 33.3
  • Toarlyn Fitzpatrick 33.2
  • Martino Brock 25
  • Jawanza Poland 22.4

Points

  • Victor Rudd 12.6
  • Toarlyn Fitzpatrick 9.3
  • Anthony Collins 7.9
  • Jawanza Poland 7.4
  • Javontae Hawkins 5.9

Field Goal %

  • Javontae Hawkins 44
  • Martino Brock 39.1
  • Victor Rudd 38.8
  • Anthony Collins 37.7
  • Jawanza Poland 36.8

FT %

  • Anthony Collins 81.8
  • Victor Rudd 74.5
  • Javontae Hawkins 73.1
  • Zach LeDay 73
  • Toarlyn Fitzpatrick 66.7

3 Pointers Made (3 Point %)

  • Toarlyn Fitzpatrick 30 (29.7%)
  • Victor Rudd 21 (27.6%)
  • Jawanza Poland 18 (29.5%)
  • Javontae Hawkins 8 (32%)
  • Anthony Collins 7 (43.8%)

Rebounding

  • Victor Rudd 6.6
  • Toarlyn Fitzpatrick 4.6
  • Jawanza Poland 3.6
  • Martino Brock 3.6
  • Zach Leay 2.4

Assists

  • Anthony Collins 93
  • Martino Brock 25
  • Victor Rudd 14
  • Toarlyn Fitzpatrick 10
  • Jawanza Poland 8

Turnovers

  • Anthony Collins 46
  • Victory Rudd 31
  • Toarlyn Fitzpatrick 25
  • Jawanza Poland 22
  • Javontae Hawkins 18

Steals

  • Martino Brock 22
  • Anthony Collins 19
  • Jawanza Poland 17
  • Toarlyn Fitzpatrick 12
  • Victor Rudd 11

Blocks

  • Toarlyn Fitzpatrick 14
  • Victor Rudd 12
  • Zach LeDay 9
  • Martino Brock 7
  • Jawanza Poland 5

UC has never lost to USF in 5/3 Arena. 

Anthony Collins is 2nd in the Big East in assists. He's 4th in assist/turnover ratio. He is a really good point guard. 

UC needs 6 blocks to tie the 2006 team with 193. That's the 3rd highest team total in UC history. 

Cincinnati and South Florida are the slowest teams in the league. USF plays at 60 possessions, UC at 62. 

These teams have 2 of the 4 worst offenses in the league. USF is scoring 0.9 points per possession, UC .96. UC has the defensive edge. The Cats give up 0.97, USF gives up 1.07 ppp. 

These are the worst shooting teams in the league. UC shooting a BE low 37%. USF is at 37.4%. Defensively, USF is giving up 44.9% shooting from the field. That's the worst non-DePaul average. UC gives up 42%. 

The Bulls are a decent free throw shooting team at 69%. The Bulls have the lowest free throw rate in the league at 27.4. That means they attempt a little over 27 free throws per every 100 field goal attempts. That's not a lot. Both teams give up FTs at a 34.2 rate. 

Expect 3 pointers to fly. UC has attempted 376, USF 341. Do not expect a lot to land. USF is making 28.4%, UC 28.7%. UC has given up the 3rd fewest amount of 3 pointers. USF the 7th fewest. 

South Florida is a poor rebounding team, the worst in the league. They get 45.8% of rebounds. UC is tops at 53.3%. UC is the best defensive rebounding team at 70.9%, USF is the worst offensive rebounding team at 29.2%. 

One thing the Bulls do very well is protect the ball. They turn it over on 18.5% of possessions, the 4th lowest in the league. UC turns it over on 19.4%, the 6th most. USF opponents turn the ball over, drum roll, on 19.4% of possessions. UC opponents on 18%. Almost like they were tailor made for each other. 

USF blocks shots on 6.7% of possessions and gets steals on 9.9%. Those rank them in the middle of the road. Neither USF or UC gets the ball stolen from them very much. 

I hope Jordan Omogbehin plays because holy shit he is a monster man. He's listed at 7-3, 334 pounds.

UC's bench didn't score in the second half against Louisville. I expect a big game from the bench crew. It would help if Justin Jackson was fully recovered from his ankle injury. UC hasn't played as well without him. They lost 2 in a row with him, but it's better with him. 

Victor Rudd is good for one sportscenter moment a game. Also good for a few boneheaded moments, but there is the sportscenter moment. 

The senior day festivities start 20 minutes before tip off. I was there last year and they were really nice. Show your appreciation for the UC seniors. They deserve it. 

Beat USF. 

Scott

About Scott

I write Bearcats Blog and also on Run the Floor.

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