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Cincinnati vs Villanova Preview

Tonight at 8 on Fox Sports Ohio and whatever carries the Big East Network in your region, the Cincinnati Bearcats play an absolutely huge home game against the Villanova Wildcats. The Wildcats come in at 15-9. The important record is that they are 6-5 in the Big East, the same as Cincinnati. The Wildcats are fighting for their NCAA tournament lives. The Bearcats are fighting to avoid a 3 game losing streak. There is a lot on the line for both clubs. 

Ignoring the Villanova half of the equation, this is a gigantic game for Cincinnati. The rest of the schedule doesn't matter. They need a win. From a confidence perspective, from an execution perspective, from any kind of perspective. It seems like the Syracuse game was a fulcrum. If that game was won, you are 17-3, 5-2 in the conference and you have a shot to win it. Since it has been lost, the air seems to have come out of the team some. Maybe that funky 9 day layoff after Syracuse and before Rutgers messed with the rhythm of the team. You normally never see layoffs like that in the middle of conference play. In their last 5 games, Cincinnati is 2-3. In the last 10, they are 5-5. We are getting to the make or break point.

I believe in this team. You probably believe in this team if you are reading the site. We have to show them tonight. 5/3 needs to rock. If you saw the Kansas game last night, the crowd carried them when things were going well. Kansas State was intimidated and overwhelmed. Cincinnati is not Kansas, but I know UC fans can rock the bitch. Show up and show off. 

If you missed the posts about the Crunch Time Shooting and the Crunch Time Baskets, don't miss them now. 

Stats are conference numbers only. 

 

Record: 18-6, 6-5 

Home: 10-4

RPI (from Real Time RPI)35

Vs Villanova: 3-6

In Cincinnati: 2-3

Winning Streak: 2 

Last Meeting: 72-68, March 3, 2012

Spread: Cincinnati by 8

Minutes

  • Sean Kilpatrick 35.4
  • JaQuon Parker 31
  • Cashmere Wright 30.4
  • Titus Rubles 23.3
  • Cheikh Mbodj 21.7

Scoring

  • Sean Kilpatrick 17.5
  • Cashmere Wright 12.8
  • JaQuon Parker 9.1
  • Cheikh Mbodj 5.7
  • Titus Rubles 5.7

Field Goal % (Min 15 attempts)

  • Cheikh Mbodj 47.8
  • Justin Jackson 42
  • JaQuon Parker 39.7
  • Shaq Thomas 39.1
  • Sean Kilpatrick 38.8

 

Free Throw % (Minimum 15 attempts)

  • Cashmere Wright 86.1
  • Sean Kilpatrick 74.6
  • Titus Rubles 71.1
  • Cheikh Mbodj 70.4
  • Justin Jackson 63.2

3 Pointers Made (3 point %)

  • Sean Kilpatrick 30 (31.3%)
  • Cashmere Wright 17 (26.2%)
  • JaQuon Parker 11 (34.4%)
  • Jermaine Sanders 6 (30%)
  • Titus Rubles 3 (18.8%)

Rebounding

  • Titus Rubles 6
  • JaQuon Parker 4.8
  • Justin Jackson 4.6
  • Sean Kilpatrick 4.4
  • Cheikh Mbodj 4.3

Assists

  • Cashmere Wright 31
  • Titus Rubles 23
  • JaQuon Parker 18
  • Sean Kilpatrick 16
  • Justin Jackson 15

Turnovers

  • JaQuon Parker 25
  • Sean Kilpatrick 23
  • Cashmere Wright 19
  • Titus Rubles 15
  • Justin Jackson 15

Steals

  • Cashmere Wright 12
  • Sean Kilpatrick 10
  • Titus Rubles 6
  • JaQuon Parker 5
  • Justin Jackson 5

Blocks

  • Cheikh Mbodj 25
  • Justin Jackson 12
  • David Nyarsuk 9
  • Sean Kilpatrick 4
  • Titus Rubles 3
  • Kelvin Gaines 3

Record: 15-9, 6-5

Road/Neutral: 6-5

RPI: 63

Minutes

  • Ryan Arcidiacono 34.5
  • Darrun Hillard 31.6
  • Mouphtaou Yarou 29.1
  • James Bell 27.4
  • JayVaughn Pinkston 23

Points

  • Darrun Hillard 14
  • JayVaughn Pinkston 12.9
  • Ryan Arcidiacono 10.9
  • Mo Yarou 10.2
  • James Bell 7.5

Field Goal %

  • Daniel Ochefu 49
  • Achraf Yacoubou 48
  • JayVaughn Pinkston 47.8
  • Mo Yarou 44.3
  • Darrun Hillard 43.7

FT %

  • Darrun Hillard 82.8
  • Ryan Arcidiacono 81.1
  • James Bell 77.8
  • Mo Yarou 77.3
  • JayVaughn Pinkston 72.2

3 Pointers Made (3 Pt %)

  • Ryan Arcidiacono 22 (32.8%)
  • James Bell 17 (36.2%)
  • Darrun Hillard 16 (33.3%)
  • Achraf Yacoubou 9 (50%)
  • JayVaughn Pinkston 2 (20%)

Rebounding

  • Mouphtaou Yarou 9
  • Daniel Ochefu 5.4
  • James Bell 4.8
  • JayVaughn Pinkston 4.5
  • Darrun Hillard 3

Assists

  • Ryan Arcidiacono 35
  • Darrun Hillard 20
  • JayVaughn Pinkston 19
  • Mouphtaou Yarou 15
  • Tony Chennault 15

Turnovers

  • Ryan Arcidiacono 31
  • JayVaughn Pinkston 30
  • Darrun Hillard 22
  • Mo Yarou 18
  • Daniel Ochefu 18

Steals

  • Darrun Hillard 17
  • James Bell 17
  • Ryan Arcidiacono 12
  • JayVaughn Pinkston 8
  • Daniel Ochefu 8

Blocks

  • Mouphtaou Yarou 10
  • Daniel Ochefu 10
  • JayVaughn Pinkston 5
  • Maurice Sutton 5
  • Darrun Hillard / James Bell 4

 

Cashmere Wright needs 3 assists to tie Steve Logan for 3rd all time. 

Cash needs 3 steals to tie for the all time lead in steals. 

With 15 points, Sean Kilpatrick will pass Lenny Stokes and move into the top 20 in points scored. 

Villanova plays one of the fastest paces in the league at 69 possessions a game. Cincinnati is one of the slowest at 62. I think it would be better for Cincinnati if they sped it up. 

Neither team are great shakes offensively. Both average 0.99 points per possession. That's middle of the pack. 

This may surprise some of you, but Villanova has been better than Cincinnati defensively. The Wildcats are holding teams to 0.93 ppp, which is the same as Georgetown, and is tied for 3rd in the league. Cincinnati is tied for 6th with St John's at 0.97 ppp. 

Villanova's opponents have shot 38.2% from the field. Cincinnati is shooting 38.2% from the field. Villanova shoots 42% from the field. Cincinnati's opponents shoot 41.8% from the field. It appears these teams are tailor made for each other. 

When you watch a Villanova game, you see a lot of free throws. The Wildcats lead the conference in free throw attempts and free throw rate. They pretty much shoot 1 free throw for every 2 field goals. That's a lot. The Wildcats give up a ton of free throws. They have allowed the 3rd highest free throw rate in the league. Cincinnati has the 3rd highest, while allowing the 3rd lowest. 

Both teams shoot a lot of 3s, UC is 1st, Nova 4th in attempts. Nova has made 2 fewer than UC. Villanova can be exploited from 3. The Wildcats give up a fair number of attempts. 

This is the 3rd straight game Cincinnati has played a team that leads the league in rebounding percentage. Providence and Pittsburgh both led in offensive rebounding percentage. Villanova is the best defensive rebounding team in the league. They pull in 71.4% of missed shots. Cincinnati is the second best at 70.7%. Offensive rebounds will be at a premium. Villanova doesn't hit the offensive glass that hard, so UC should be able to keep them off. UC needs to get boards. Especially if they keep missing shots. 

Villanova hurts their offense because they turn the ball over a lot. They turn it over on 23% of their possessions, the second most in the league. Mick has been talking about defense starting the offense, well this is a good team to put that plan into motion with. Cincinnati only forces turnovers on 17.5% of possessions. Nova doesn't force a lot either, 18.8%. 

Villanova has caused 11 players to foul out. Interesting note. 

JaQuon Parker is going for at least 15 tonight. Watch. 

I'm going to keep track of the late game possessions for a post on Thursday. UC has to close tonight. They've been brutal lately. Look at the post again if you want to be sad. I think they finish tonight. Big win coming. 

Cincinnati 69 Villanova 63

Scott

About Scott

I write Bearcats Blog and also on Run the Floor.

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